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  • Mázsa Péter 18:57 on 2011.12.12 Permalink |
    Tags: Crisis,   

    Infografika Valentinyi Ákos: “A fiskális unió nem több egy mítosznál” c. cikkéhez 

    A cikk: http://index.hu/gazdasag/penzbeszel/2011/12/12/euro_valentinyi/

    Az illusztráció:

    Forrás: http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/11/euro-zone-economies

  • Mázsa Péter 16:16 on 2010.11.13 Permalink |
    Tags: Crisis,   

    G20: Profound And Complete Disappointment “1. There was no substantive progress on anything to do with exchange rates. The “indicative guidelines” to be agreed next year are just a way to kick the can down the road. The Chinese are digging in hard on their exchange rate; this is headed towards a mutually destructive trade war.

    2. There was less disagreement at the summit regarding the ”regulation” of global megabanks – but only because this had been gutted so effectively by the bankers’ lobby and officials who bought their specious arguments. There is nothing here that will prevent or limit the impact of another major worldwide financial crisis.

    3. On IMF governance, over which there was substantial fanfare in advance, it turns out there has been a major step backwards. The Europeans have apparently signaled they are no longer willing to give up the job of Managing Director – they have always controlled this job and this is a major reason why IMF legitimacy remains weak. Unless and until an emerging market person gets this position, no one (outside of Europe) will want to rely on the IMF in an emergency. As a result all countries will want to “manage” their exchange rates – to the extent they can – along Chinese lines, aiming for a significant current account surplus (so as to build up foreign exchange reserves). See point #1 above for the likely consequences of that.” http://baselinescenario.com/2010/11/13/g20-profound-and-complete-disappointment-for-the-us-treasury

    The G20 Seoul Summit Leaders’ Declaration November 11 – 12, 2010:

  • Mázsa Péter 23:33 on 2010.10.28 Permalink |
    Tags: , Crisis, ,   

    Fidesz picks another fight 

    “HUNGARY is transfixed by an unprecedented political battle. In one corner, the constitutional court, the highest legal body in the land. In the other, the centre-right Fidesz government, which has enjoyed virtually unlimited political power since it won a two-thirds parliamentary majority at a general election in April. Or at least it did until Tuesday morning, when the court threw out a law that would apply a 98% tax to all public-sector severance payments over 2m forints ($10,000), backdated to January 1st 2010. The court argued, reasonably enough, that such retroactive legislation would breach employee contracts and was unconstitutional.

    Round one to the court. But Fidesz reacted with fury. By Tuesday afternoon János Lázár, the leader of Fidesz in parliament, had drafted legislation to remove the court’s jurisdiction over the state budget, taxes and other financial matters. Fidesz’s huge majority would ensure a smooth passage for the new law, which probably would have passed within a few days. Round two to Fidesz.

    Or, perhaps, not, for it seems this time the party may have overreached itself. If the court refuses to back down, Hungary could lurch into a constitutional crisis. […]

    But perhaps the most worrying aspect of the government’s move is the way it fits a pattern of arbitrary decision-making set by the government since its election. There seems little room for the opposition in Fidesz’s relentless pursuit of what it describes as national unity and co-operation. Earlier this month the government announced a crisis tax on the energy, telecommunications and retail industries, all of which have substantial foreign holdings. Together with a new bank tax, this package should raise $2.67 billion a year for three years, helping pay for the government’s planned cuts in income and corporation tax. In fact the government’s real fear, says Krisztian Szabados of Political Capital, a think-tank, is that the constitutional court will throw out the crisis taxes, tearing a massive hole in the budget.

    Bashing foreign investors is usually popular in Hungary and these extra business taxes will not dent the government’s popularity. There are few votes in reminding the electorate that it was foreign capital which kickstarted Hungary’s moribund economy in the early 1990s, which has brought tens of thousands of jobs and which has nurtured Hungary’s nascent middle class. But Hungary needs more of it—and these latest shenanigans are unlikely to help.” http://www.economist.com/blogs/easternapproaches/2010/10/hungarian_politics

  • Mázsa Péter 16:04 on 2010.10.24 Permalink |
    Tags: Crisis, , , , , , ,   

    Hungary Still Lacks A Coherent Economic Policy 

    “Hungary […] is in dire need of [a coherent economic] policy. The country reasoned its decision in mid-July to get rid of the International Monetary Fund with a desire for “economic policy sovereignty”–a wish to pursue an economic policy on its own.

    As a result, Hungary is left to its own devices to ensure its financing from markets. A credible and sustainable economic policy would be key to convince investors to put their money into Hungarian assets. […]

    Now Hungary wants to boost growth with cutting personal income taxes and corporate taxes for small and medium-size companies. And plug the resulting revenue holes in the budget with hefty extraordinary taxes to be levied on energy companies, telecommunications firms and large supermarket chains–most of which are foreign-owned–for three years, on top of a massive bank tax already approved earlier this year.

    The levies, which will are scheduled to pass parliament Monday, will wipe out half of the sectors’ profits each year. They are a “bad message” to investors, Mr. Orban agreed. But necessary to aim at an economic growth of 4% to 6% in three years, Mr. Orban added.

    However, most investment bank economists are of the view that the taxes, which could raise constitutional concerns as well as EU disapproval, will backlash and dampen growth, reduce employment and boost inflation as the companies will try to pass the higher costs on to consumers. Morgan Stanley economist Pasquale Diana even said that Hungary is “squaring the circle with the one-off taxes,” which neither the credit-rating agencies nor the central bank will like.

    While the extra tax revenues make the 2010 and 2011 budget deficit targets attainable, concerns remain how Hungary plans to fund the personal income and corporate tax cuts beyond 2012, when the temporary tax increases are to end, if the spending side of the budget is not reformed until then.

    Thus, markets’ hopes were also high that the Prime Minister will reveal Monday budget reform plans and spending cuts as the speech was titled an economic action plan. But Mr. Orban only said that the tax increases will provide an opportunity to reform the health, education and public sectors in the years to come.

    How much disappointment markets can take for how long from Hungary is the key question left.” http://blogs.wsj.com/new-europe/2010/10/18/hungary-still-lacks-a-coherent-economic-policy/

  • Mázsa Péter 15:21 on 2010.10.16 Permalink |
    Tags: , , Crisis, , , , , , , , , , , ,   

    Why the U.S. Has Launched a New Financial World War — and How the Rest of the World Will Fight Back http://www.alternet.org/economy/148481/why_the_u.s._has_launched_a_new_financial_world_war_–_and_how_the_rest_of_the_world_will_fight_back_?page=entire

    Mit gondoltok? / What do you think?

  • Mázsa Péter 02:13 on 2010.06.11 Permalink |
    Tags: Crisis,   

    The Soros Speech on ‘Act II’ of the Crisis “[…] the authorities had to do in the short term the exact opposite of what was needed in the long term: they had to pump in a lot of credit to make up for the credit that disappeared, and thereby reinforce the excess credit and leverage that had caused the crisis in the first place. Only in the longer term, when the crisis had subsided, could they drain the credit and re-establish macroeconomic balance.

    This required a delicate two-phase maneuver just as when a car is skidding. First you have to turn the car into the direction of the skid and only when you have regained control can you correct course.

    The first phase of the maneuver has been successfully accomplished — a collapse has been averted. In retrospect, the temporary breakdown of the financial system seems like a bad dream. There are people in the financial institutions that survived who would like nothing better than to forget it and carry on with business as usual. This was evident in their massive lobbying effort to protect their interests in the Financial Reform Act that just came out of Congress. But the collapse of the financial system as we know it is real, and the crisis is far from over.

    Indeed, we have just entered Act II of the drama, when financial markets started losing confidence in the credibility of sovereign debt. Greece and the euro have taken center stage, but the effects are liable to be felt worldwide. Doubts about sovereign credit are forcing reductions in budget deficits at a time when the banks and the economy may not be strong enough to permit the pursuit of fiscal rectitude. We find ourselves in a situation eerily reminiscent of the 1930s. Keynes has taught us that budget deficits are essential for counter cyclical policies, yet many governments have to reduce them under pressure from financial markets. This is liable to push the global economy into a double dip. […]

    The European authorities face a daunting task: they must help the countries that have fallen far behind the Maastricht criteria to regain their equilibrium while they must also correct the deficiencies of the Maastricht Treaty which have allowed the imbalances to develop. The euro is in what I call a far-from-equilibrium situation. But I prefer to discuss this subject in Germany, which is the lead actor, and I plan to do so at the Humboldt University in Berlin on June 23. I hope you will forgive me if I avoid the subject until then.”


  • Mázsa Péter 12:15 on 2010.06.07 Permalink |
    Tags: Crisis   

    “Overall, we think there are still serio… 

    “Overall, we think there are still serious risks from the Hungarian situation and we are
    not convinced that the Hungarian government fully understands the seriousness of this
    self-inflicted crisis. We are particularly concerned that the Fidesz-led government
    seems more interested in criticising the politics of the previous government than
    calming the markets. We hope that in the coming days – hopefully later today – the
    Hungarian government will come out with clear initiatives to calm market fears.”

    Danske Bank

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