Európa nyakig – mi meg a vállán:( Biztosan jó lesz a hiány 6,5%-ra növelése??


[Forrás: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/02/weekinreview/02schwartz.html ]

Pártunk racionális részének diagnózisa:

The underlying problem is the rule for printing money: in the
eurozone, any government can finance itself by issuing bonds directly
(or indirectly) to commercial banks, and then having those banks
“repo” them (i.e., borrow using these bonds as collateral) at the ECB
in return for fresh euros. The commercial banks make a profit because
the ECB charges them very little for those loans, while the
governments get the money – and can thus finance larger budget
deficits. The problem is that eventually that government has to pay
back its debt or, more modestly, at least stabilize its public debt
levels.

This same structure directly distorts the incentives of commercial
banks: they have a backstop at the ECB, which is the “lender of last
resort”; and the ECB and European Union (EU) put a great deal of
pressure on each nation to bail out commercial banks in trouble. When
a country joins the eurozone, its banks win access to a large amount
of cheap financing, along with the expectation they will be bailed out
when they make mistakes. This, in turn, enables the banks to greatly
expand their balance sheets, ploughing into domestic real estate,
overseas expansion, or crazy junk products issued by Goldman Sachs.
Just think of Ireland and Spain, where the banks took on massive loans
that are now sinking the country. http://baselinescenario.com/2010/04/29/to-save-the-eurozone-1-trillion-european-central-bank-reform-and-a-new-head-for-the-imf

Alapvetően tehát a fenti problémát kell megoldani.

De mit lehet tenni hirtelen, ha (ill.: amikor) terjed a válság:

I think what is needed is for every deficit-plagued government to
lower public sector salaries [including pensions!!] by ten percent until the crisis blows
over.

The worst thing that could happen is that cutting wages could reduce
aggregate demand through Keynesian channels. But gosh, look at some of
the alternatives: sovereign defaults, bank runs, cuts in public sector
jobs? A cut in public sector pay is probably the least unpalatable
option.” http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2010/04/the_best_policy_1.html

Mielőtt ide jutnánk: biztos, hogy a hiány 6,5%-ra való növelésével érdemes kezdeni a kormányzást??