Amerikai kutatók: októbertől globális éhséglázadások várhatók. Magyarországon is erősen emelkednek az élelmiszerárak

A New England Complex Systems Institute http://necsi.edu/about modellje szerint:

In times of food crises, starving people take to the streets. Hunger leads to desperation, and desperation to violence. NECSI has shown that surges in unrest coincided with food price peaks in 2007-01 and 2010-11:

Food prices (blue) and food price model (red) including projected increases in coming months. The social unrest threshold, corrected for inflation (purple dashed line) is a level of food prices that is likely to cause food riots of impoverished populations and social disruption:


http://necsi.edu/research/social/foodprices/briefing/

Érdekes infó az MIT Technology Review-ból:

On 13 December last year, the group wrote to the US government pointing out that global food prices were about to cross the threshold they had identified. Four days later, Mohamed Bouazizi set himself on fire in Tunisia in protest at government policies, an event that triggered a wave of social unrest that continues to spread throughout the middle east today.

http://www.technologyreview.com/view/425019/the-cause-of-riots-and-the-price-of-food/

Eredeti kutatás (2011): http://arxiv.org/pdf/1108.2455v1.pdf
(cf. http://cliodynamics.info/PDF/Turchin_JPR2012.pdf )

Magyarországi helyzetkép: Erős drágulás jön a nyári kánikula után http://www.portfolio.hu/gazdasag/eros_dragulas_jon_a_nyari_kanikula_utan.172564.html

Vö.: http://news.slashdot.org/story/12/09/10/2228225/complex-systems-theorists-predict-were-about-one-year-from-global-food-riots