Külföldi hagyományos közgazdászok: Kiadáscsökkentés, reform jó, adóztatás rossz. Orbán: fordítva
This paper studies whether ﬁscal corrections cause large output losses. We ﬁnd that it matters crucially how the ﬁscal correction occurs. Adjustments based upon spending cuts are much less costly in terms of output losses than tax-based ones. Spending-based adjustments have been associated with mild and short lived recessions, in many cases with no recession at all. Tax-based adjustments have been associated with prolonged and deep recessions. The diﬀerence cannot be explained by diﬀerent monetary policies during the two types of adjustments.
És az ok/mechanizmus?
The aggregate demand component which reﬂects more closely the diﬀerence in the response of output to ECB [expenditure cut based] and TB [tax based] adjustments is private investment. The conﬁdence of investors proceeds with the economy and therefore recovers much sooner after a spending-based adjustment than after a tax-based one. The diﬀerences between the two types of adjustments appears not to be explained by a diﬀerent response of monetary policy. These results are consistent with the descriptive statistics presented in Alesina and Ardagna (2012) who show that the ﬁscal stabilizations which have the mildest eﬀect on output are those that are accompanied by a set of structural reforms which signal a “decisive” policy change. They (like us) do not ﬁnd any diﬀerence in the monetary policy stance between spending based and tax-based adjustments, but mostly diﬀerences in the policy packages regarding supply side reforms and liberalizations.
- Orbán “nem lesznek megszorítások” Viktor kiadáscsökkentés-ellenes (legutóbb pl.: http://www.origo.hu/itthon/20120908-orban-az-imf-megszoritasokat-akar.html )
- a gazdasági reformok szükségessége az agyáig sem jut el, és
- a GDP 37%-áról 38%-ra növelte az adókat (vö.: http://ado.hu/szaklap/ado-lap/2012-4-5/interju-dr-balog-adammal-a-nemzetgazdasagi-miniszterium-adougyekert-felelos-helyettes-allamtitkaraval összefoglalása: http://atv.hu/belfold/20120309_balog_ennel_tobbet_adoban_mar_nem_lehet_elvonni ).
Szépen állunk (pontosabban: esünk).