Külföldi hagyományos közgazdászok: Kiadáscsökkentés, reform jó, adóztatás rossz. Orbán: fordítva

This paper studies whether fiscal corrections cause large output losses. We find that it matters crucially how the fiscal correction occurs. Adjustments based upon spending cuts are much less costly in terms of output losses than tax-based ones. Spending-based adjustments have been associated with mild and short lived recessions, in many cases with no recession at all. Tax-based adjustments have been associated with prolonged and deep recessions. The difference cannot be explained by different monetary policies during the two types of adjustments.

És az ok/mechanizmus?

The aggregate demand component which reflects more closely the difference in the response of output to ECB [expenditure cut based] and TB [tax based] adjustments is private investment. The confidence of investors proceeds with the economy and therefore recovers much sooner after a spending-based adjustment than after a tax-based one. The differences between the two types of adjustments appears not to be explained by a different response of monetary policy. These results are consistent with the descriptive statistics presented in Alesina and Ardagna (2012) who show that the fiscal stabilizations which have the mildest effect on output are those that are accompanied by a set of structural reforms which signal a “decisive” policy change. They (like us) do not find any difference in the monetary policy stance between spending based and tax-based adjustments, but mostly differences in the policy packages regarding supply side reforms and liberalizations.

http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/alesina/files/Output%2BEffect%2BFiscal%2BConsolidations_Aug%2B2012.pdf

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